Chinese stock prices have significantly decoupled from the country’s business cycle, with the full impact of US tariffs yet to be realized. The valuation-driven equity gains without a cyclical economic recovery will be vulnerable to…
The July PMIs and inflation data confirm that China faces a persistent low-growth, deflationary backdrop, with weak demand and tariff risk warranting defensive equity positioning. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists argue that artificial intelligence will destabilize both domestic politics and international security, prompting more aggressive fiscal responses. President Trump’s July 23 executive orders to…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists advise investors to remain open to the possibility that a new Cold War dynamic is forming in global trade. While the US-China rivalry does not map perfectly onto the original Cold War, the analogy…
BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories…
Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond…
Beijing’s supply-side push faces steeper hurdles than in 2016. With limited demand support and tighter constraints on cutting capacity, today’s reforms are unlikely to pack the same punch.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
Upward pressure on Japan’s real bond yield justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech. Plus: two new tactical trades are long JPY/EUR and short platinum.