Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team expects a further decline in Indian stocks. Foreign equity inflows have been instrumental in the recent rally, but they will likely reverse in the coming months as risk-off sentiments pervade…
2023 is shaping up as a record-breaking year for global oil demand, according to our colleagues BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES). By year end, they expect the world will be consuming a record 103.5mm b/d, an…
The conventional wisdom is that China’s economy is overly indebted and too reliant on residential construction and exports as drivers of growth. While there is much truth to these claims, they ignore the underlying…
We continue to expect China to deploy stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus to avoid prolonged deflation brought about by a liquidity trap and sub-zero growth. All the same, a lower-growth risk has been added to our ensemble forecast…
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the…
The fiscal impulse philosophies of the two largest economies of the world are set to pull in opposite directions in 2023. After the massive fiscal stimulus of 2020, the US had been cutting back on its deficit. But US fiscal…
On Monday, Asia Pacific equity markets closed in the red due to the news that China’s largest real estate developer, Country Garden, is suspending the trading of some of its bonds. This recent episode is a continuation of…
Chinese credit and money data fell significantly below expectations in July. The CNY 0.53 trillion increase in aggregate social financing marks a significant slowdown from CNY 4.22 trillion in June and came in significantly below…