Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil producers stand the most to gain following the failed coup against the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The biggest beneficiaries will be the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA…
In Section I, we reiterate why a soft economic landing remains improbable in the US. Some reasonable estimates of the level of excess savings point to their depletion in a year’s time, but other estimates indicate a much earlier end…
The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening.…
China’s economic and diplomatic interests in the GCC region will expand, as will its military presence. Whether or not this stabilizes the region is yet to be determined, particularly if tensions in the South China Sea and other…
Global non-TMT stocks are at risk of a relapse given worsening conditions in global manufacturing and still hawkish policies from the Fed and ECB. According to the preliminary release, manufacturing PMI new orders for advanced…
Our Geopolitical Strategy service cautions investors of Russian instability, which will likely push up the global equity risk premium in the next few months. After some developments during the weekend, Vladimir Putin and his…
Industrial metals have been rallying in recent weeks. The London Metals Exchange Metals Index (LMEX) – a weighted index that captures the price movement of primary aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, copper, and tin – has…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a sustainable recovery in Chinese property construction is unlikely. The deterioration in China’s property market indicators worsened in May. Home…
China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity…