China’s economic data releases for May fell below consensus estimates. The 7.2% y/y contraction in property investment in the first five months of the year was worse than the expected 6.7% decline. The deceleration in…
The normalization of oil storage markets in the Northern Hemisphere; strong demand, aided by China stimulus this year; and continued production discipline supports our view Brent prices likely have bottomed, and will move higher from…
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case…
Policymakers will likely continue to stimulate domestic demand via targeted measures and piecemeal stimulus. Yet, the economy will disappoint unless Beijing provides “irrigation-style” stimulus. The latter is not our base case…
China’s money and credit update for May continues a string of disappointing Chinese data releases. The CNY 1.56 trillion increase in total social financing fell below expectations of a CNY 1.90 trillion rise. Similarly, the…
Oil and metals reacted positively to the PBOC's 10 bp cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate, which will be part of the larger monetary and fiscal support needed to revive the economy. While deposit rates at state-owned banks have…
In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as…
In our May In Review Insight, we highlighted that last month, industrial metals generated the largest abnormal losses among the major global financial assets we track. This continues a downtrend that started at the beginning of…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The…