Near the half-year mark, it is safe to say 2023 has been different than 2022 for equity investors. After being brought down in bear market territory by Europe’s energy crisis and sudden global shift to hawkish monetary…
Slowing manufacturing PMI indices globally indicate the slowdown in economic activity will persist. Manufacturing demand for commodities will also soften, weighing on industrial commodity prices. Geopolitical tensions and the race to…
Chinese trade data delivered a disappointing signal about the global manufacturing cycle. After a brief rebound in March and April, exports dropped by 7.5% y/y in USD terms last month – below consensus estimates of a 1.8% y…
After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the…
The Biden administration reached out to China to try to reduce tensions over the month of May, attracting interest from the investment community, though our Geopolitical Strategists believe the US and China cannot agree to a…
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-…
Our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) service expect the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to announce a new round of policy stimulus to re-boot the economy, in an effort to escape a prolonged liquidity…
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed…
Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s…