Our China strategists maintain a defensive stance on equities, favoring government bonds and high-dividend sectors as deflation persists. China’s deflationary pressures are supply-driven, with manufacturing capacity expanding faster…
Our Geopolitical strategists warn that structural and cyclical risks remain elevated despite a fading threat of acute shocks, and recommend booking profits ahead of tariffs and weaker data. President Trump is passing his signature…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
This report analyzes China’s persistent deflation, which is rooted in supply-side forces. Consumption support will be slow and incremental, keeping deflationary pressures elevated for the next 6–12 months.
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
Headline strength in US capital goods orders is unlikely to last, reinforcing our defensive stance and preference for steepeners. New orders for core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) rose 1.7% m/m in May, beating expectations…
Household data beat in May, but China’s macro story remains fragile, reinforcing our overweight in local government bonds. Traditional supply-side activity decelerated, with industrial production and fixed asset investment both…
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong.
BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or…
The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.