China’s NBS Composite PMI relapsed to 54.4 in April from 57 – the first monthly decline since the index bottomed at 42.6 in December. Importantly, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices fell. In…
Incoming economic data confirm that China’s post-lockdown recovery remains bifurcated. On the one hand, the end of the zero-Covid policy is boosting consumer spending – particularly on services. On the other hand,…
In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s property market indicators show signs of stabilization, and further mild improvement in the coming months is likely. However, a strong recovery is…
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase…
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.
China’s economic data sent a positive signal about the domestic recovery following the dismantling of pandemic restrictions. GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022 to 4.5% y/y in Q1 2023, marking the fastest…