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China

The Enigma Of Oil Fundamentals

EM oil demand remains resilient and will continue to be propelled by global growth this year. Supply management by OPEC 2.0 and production discipline outside the coalition will be maintained, forcing inventories lower. Recent price weakness – largely reflecting political uncertainty – has pulled our 2023 Brent forecast down to $90/bbl (from $95/bbl); our 2024 forecast remains at $115/bbl.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
On China’s Underwhelming Recovery
The latest Chinese economic data releases for April signal a disappointing domestic recovery. Weak economic conditions during the Shanghai lockdown last April created a low base effect which boosted the annual comparison. However, the 5.6% y/y increase in…
Daily Insights
China’s Recovery Disappoints
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices accelerated to -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile,…
Daily Insights
Will China Revert To Its Old Stimulus Playbook?
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the recovery in China’s economy (other than the consumer sector) to underwhelm.  A recent conversation with a one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists (whom they refer…
Daily Insights
A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

This week we are sending you a transcript of my conversation with one of China’s most prominent and influential pro-market economists. Topics raised during my conversation with this Chinese expert may offer our clients important insights and provide context into recent developments in China’s economy.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
Base Effects Distort Signal From Chinese Exports
China’s trade release shows exports grew for the second consecutive month in April. However, base effects are distorting the signal. In particular, the two-month-long Shanghai lockdown that started at the end of March 2022 weighed on Chinese exports in April…
Daily Insights
China’s Politburo: No Helicopter Money
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the late April meeting of China’s Politburo suggests that the Chinese government will maintain the accommodative macroeconomic policies outlined in March. Compared to last December’s Central…
Daily Insights
The 2023 Outlook For Consumer Spending In China

China’s reopening, combined with a slew of pro-consumption policy stimuli, will likely boost household consumption by 10% in nominal terms in 2023 from a year ago. Some of the hardest hit service sectors during the pandemic will experience a strong recovery. Within the A-share market, investors should overweight the consumer discretionary sector versus the Chinese CSI300 benchmark.

China Investment Strategy
Caveat Emptor (GeoRisk Update)

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Chinese Manufacturing Activity Shrinks, Non-Manufacturing Slows
China’s NBS Composite PMI relapsed to 54.4 in April from 57 – the first monthly decline since the index bottomed at 42.6 in December. Importantly, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices fell. In particular, the manufacturing PMI dropped 2.7…
Daily Insights

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