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China

Household data beat in May, but China’s macro story remains fragile, reinforcing our overweight in local government bonds. Traditional supply-side activity decelerated, with industrial production and fixed asset investment both weaker, while retail sales and…

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong. 

1 Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds …

The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.

1 US-China Trade De-Escalation Won’t Drive New Highs …
China’s tourism sector has rebounded meaningfully since the January 2023 COVID reopening; however, investors should not be complacent about the outlook for tourism stocks. The double-digit revenue growth of the Chinese tourism industry over the past…

President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against entirely arbitrary executive tariffs, especially when wielded against US allies and partners.

Chinese tourism will continue growing, but investors should be mindful not to overpay for Chinese tourism stocks by extrapolating their past double-digit revenue growth into the future.

The prevailing narrative around the world is that Chinese households are not spending enough and that China has overly relied on exports for economic growth. Some parts of this conjecture are incorrect. The primary economic imbalance in China is neither inadequate consumption nor outsized exports. The main economic excess is overinvestment.

This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels between 2025 and 2020, then highlights some important differences, and ends by describing how the rest of 2025 might unfold based on a playbook that is: 2025 = ‘2000 with some tweaks.’