Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.
A global economic downturn will be a headwind for natgas prices over the cyclical horizon. Thereafter, LNG capacity additions will help keep the market in balance into the end of the decade. That said, Europe’s increased dependence…
Copper has experienced a roller-coaster ride so far this year, with front-month futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gaining nearly 40% from early February to late May, tumbling nearly 15% in just over five weeks, and…
Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.
In Section I, we examine some concerning signs of US economic weakness that emerged in June. We also discuss portfolio positioning in the face of falling interest rates and cross-check our recommended US equity overweight in the face…
The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural…
Historically, there has been a tight inverse relationship between the price of gold and US real rates. Elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the yellow metal relatively less attractive for…
Gold spot prices have returned a whopping 25% YTD, with the bulk of this performance having occurred in the last three months. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, a Fed pivot to rate cuts will provide gold prices with a tailwind. At first blush, the historical evidence is mixed. While gold rallied in the three…