According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump’s conviction will not be a game changer in the upcoming Presidential election. President Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges by a 12-person jury…
Copper prices have returned a whopping 25.6% YTD, briefly breaking above USD 5 earlier this month. The red metal accounts for a large share of industrial metals indices and it is being buoyed by the same late-cycle dynamics as…
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the sudden increase in investor optimism about copper and lopsided long positioning has led to a short squeeze. Short squeezes are typically short-lived…
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash underscores the instability of Iran and the Middle East, which is getting worse, not better…
The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is…
The rally in gold continues and spot prices flirted with their all-time highs last week. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are usually strongly inversely correlated.…
The S&P GSCI broad commodity index has returned 8% year-to-date. Improving investor sentiment has significantly broadened the rally since the beginning of the year. Over 65% of commodities in the index are now trading above…