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Commodities & Energy Sector

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China’s Credit Impulse Loses Its Mojo

The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Central Bank Purchases: A Tailwind For Gold
Historically, there has been a tight inverse relationship between the price of gold and US real rates. Elevated interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the yellow metal relatively less attractive for investors. Yet this…
Daily Insights
Stay Neutral Gold, Despite Cyclical And Structural Tailwinds
Gold spot prices have returned a whopping 25% YTD, with the bulk of this performance having occurred in the last three months. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are usually strongly inversely…
Daily Insights
Fed Easing Is A Tailwind For Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, a Fed pivot to rate cuts will provide gold prices with a tailwind. At first blush, the historical evidence is mixed. While gold rallied in the three months leading up to the start of…
Daily Insights
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Gold: A Breakout Or A Fakeout?

Gold prices might experience a correction or consolidation over the near term. However, cyclical and structural forces will ultimately cause the yellow metal to trend upwards.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim
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South Africa: After Hegemony

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
Will Oil Continue To Extend Losses?
Earlier this year, WTI oil prices peaked on April 5th at $87.69 per barrel. They have since corrected by 12.7%. Should asset managers expect this decline to continue? Our Global Investment Strategy team believes oil prices could see some upside over the…
Daily Insights
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The One About Energy And Aerospace & Defense

We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
May In Review
The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated markets in May, with both equities and bonds rallying throughout the month. Meanwhile, the counter-cyclical US dollar slumped, and the cyclical euro appreciated against the greenback. Regionally, US assets…
Daily Insights
Oil Demand Forecasts Raise The Risk Of Disappointments
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the oil demand forecasts from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC are too optimistic. The IEA, EIA, and OPEC all anticipate oil demand growth to slow this year following a robust post-pandemic…
Daily Insights

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