The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth…
The soft-landing narrative dominated the behavior of financial markets in March, with most major global risk assets posting above average returns. In particular, the burgeoning ‘risk on’ sentiment led to a rally…
MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a negative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.
The recent rally in commodity markets is drawing the attention of the investment community and financial media. It’s not just cocoa – which has experienced a staggering 118.4% year to date increase that has further…
Inflationary pressures this year will remain subdued as labor-productivity growth – driven by strong capex and R+D spending – continues. This will make the Fed more confident in beginning its policy-rate-cutting cycle in June, and…
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.
Crude oil prices have been steadily rising since mid-December with Brent rising to its highest level since November 2023. Both demand and supply-side forces are behind this move. The catalyst for the month-to-date gain is a…
We expect oil-demand growth to increase this year – to 1.7mm b/d from 1.4mm b/d (0.30% of total demand) – and anticipate tighter supply at the margin. Our balances estimates are unchanged, leaving our Brent price forecasts for 2024…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese…