MacroQuant upgraded equities to overweight in February on a tactical short-term (1-to-3 month) horizon, but it continues to see downside risks to stocks on a medium-term (12-month) horizon. Consistent with the model’s relatively…
Naturally occurring hydrogen as a clean-energy source has the potential to satisfy significant energy demand growth at low cost. Oil and gas E+P companies and pipelines are ideally positioned to take a leading role in this clean-…
Our US economic sentiment indicator – which is based on the difference between our equity valuation index and our bond valuation index – remains on an uptrend since its pandemic trough. Investors are pushing US stocks…
While efforts by policymakers to stabilize the stock market are buoying Chinese equities, domestic economic data remains soggy. Home prices declined further on both a monthly and annual basis in January, reinforcing the…
The rally in cocoa prices has intensified over the past two months. Prices are up 47.7% so far in 2024 on top of a 61.3% increase last year. There are fundamental reasons for the price surge. Drier weather due to the El Nino…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold purchases by central banks will continue apace, as they diversify away from USD foreign reserves. Amid elevated geopolitical risk, arising from…
Seasonal weather and price variability in the first quarter will dissipate, which will reduce the agita caused by the recent inflation scare. This will increase the Fed’s comfort level in initiating a rate-cutting cycle in June with…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
Reported earnings for Q4-2023 were rather underwhelming and prone to issues that we have identified over the past few months: Growth is concentrated in just a few sectors and companies, while the profitability of a broad swath of the…