Commodities & Energy Sector

Global oil supply will slightly exceed demand in the next six months, resulting in a small surplus. Brent oil prices will trade in a range with a floor at $80 per barrel, barring any geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and/or escalation in the West-Russia conflict.

CBs proved to be savvy buyers of gold over 3Q22, scooping up record volumes of the metal as prices remained weak. The exorbitant privilege accorded the USD’s reserve-currency status will continue to erode as EM states move to insulate themselves against US financial and trade sanctions being turned on them. Based on our modeling, we believe as long as the Fed is intent on keeping the real effective USD exchange rate and real UST rates positive, demand for higher CB gold reserves will persist. Given this view, we are getting tactically long gold at tonight’s close.

A client concerned about the slump in asset prices, the stubbornness of inflation, and rising bond yields asks what went wrong, and what happens next? This report is the full transcript of our conversation.

As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.

Copper markets will remain tight on the back of growing physical deficits and pressure on capex. Policy-rate increases by central banks, uncertainty over re-opening in China and its fiscal-stimulus plans in the short run restrain risk taking. In the long run, the implications of China’s inward turn will keep supply-concentration risk for metals high, given its dominance of base-metals refining globally. Notwithstanding the disconnect between physical and futures markets, we remain bullish metals mining equities, and remain long the XME ETF.

Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.