Communications Services
Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.
Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant markets. The Fed is unlikely to step in to prevent the bubble as it is currently more worried about the near-term downside for growth than financial stability.
Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the economy. Development of AI applications is in full swing, but few companies are monetizing them yet. Consumer spending is strong but is slowing. We reiterate our underweight of consumer sectors, and overweight of Software and Services as the “don’t fight AI” adage holds.
The broad market took a significant step backward in April, as market jitters gripped investors, stoking fears of higher for longer monetary policy. However, our roundtable investor poll has demonstrated that the majority remain constructive on equities, and have plenty of cash ready to be invested, which could prolong the rally. Economic data is deteriorating while inflation is stubborn. However, so far, bad news is good news as many believe that a “Fed put” is still on.
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
The Telecoms industry is highly concentrated, and carriers compete on price and quality of service in a slow growing market. Demand for capex is relentless. The roll out of 5G has disappointed. Recently, capex outlays have slowed, and operating cash flow has rebounded. Further, Telecoms is a quintessential defensive industry that will outperform during a market pullback.