January US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number contracting by 0.9% m/m. The decline was broad-based, with spending excluding autos and gas down 0.5%, and the control group also down 0.8%. The retail sales…

 The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations’ 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged in January. Five-year ahead expectations however increased, as did expectations for staples inflation, while spending…

 China’s January consumer prices rebounded to 0.5% y/y, and producer price deflation was unchanged at -2.3%. China’s first quarter data tends to be distorted by the Chinese New Year, as its variable dates shift consumption peaks…

 The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year…

 December PCE inflation was in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 0.3% m/m (2.6% y/y) and core at 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y). The Q4 employment cost index also came in line with expectations at 0.9% q/q. Inflation is…

 The January Tokyo CPI came in stronger than expected, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%, and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) accelerating to 1.9% from 1.8%. The jobless rate also decreased 0.1% to 2.4…

 The January 2025 ECB bank lending survey saw a net tightening of credit standards in Q4 2024. Credit standards were tightened for business and consumer lending, and were roughly unchanged for home mortgage loans. Banks expect further…

 The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, decreasing to 104.1 from an upwardly-revised 109.5 in December. The decrease was driven by both the present situation and expectations subcomponents. The…

 The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component…

 Our China Investment Strategy team explored how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, US importers, and consumers. The inflationary impact of new US tariffs is likely to remain modest unless…