Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the…
China’s November PMIs were mixed, and reflected very low growth. The official composite PMI was unchanged at 50.8, driven by a small uptick in manufacturing to 50.3 and a small downtick of services to 50. The Caixin…
The November ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations, increasing to 48.4 from 46.5 in October. The improvement was partly driven by the new orders component, which increased to 50.4 from 47.1. Price pressures moderated.…
The November flash Eurozone inflation estimate met expectations, with headline HICP accelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.0% in October, above the ECB’s target. Core inflation remained constant at 2.7%. At 3.9%, services…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of 0.3% m/m in October, and accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 2.7% in September. Inflation rose on the back of hot inputs from the PPI report, which is not…
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future…
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings…
The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a…
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis.…