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Consumer

Strong Consumer Confidence Increases Odds Of A “No-Landing”
Consumer confidence came in as expected in November, with The Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 from 108.7 in October, a level not seen since August 2023. Both the assessment of consumers’ present and future situation drove the increase. The…
Daily Insights
The Message From Major US Retailers
Our US Investment Strategy team analyzed recent US consumer trends through the lens of major retailers’ earnings calls, which highlighted increasingly prudent spending. Consumer caution is apparent in these earnings calls as pandemic-era savings fade, and…
Daily Insights
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Another Look At The Labor Market

The force of the post-election momentum leads us to believe we could be stopped out of our defensive positioning before the week is out, but we still believe in our recession call. If we are eventually stopped out, we will seek a more opportune entry point to bet against risk assets once the election fever runs its course.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Employment: Noisy Jobs Report Extends Cooling Trend
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis. Nonfarm payrolls were flat with…
Daily Insights
What To Watch
  What To Watch …
Daily Insights
US: The Disinflationary Trend Is Intact
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of a reacceleration to 0.3% month-on-month, and reached 2.7% year-over-year. The rest of the Personal Income and Outlays report showed solid consumption growth, although supported by a…
Daily Insights
US Consumers Are Not All The Same
As US consumers remain one of the few engines of global growth, our US Investment Strategy colleagues took a deep dive on consumer trends, augmented with comments from US banks’ earnings calls. Middle-aged consumers have fallen behind the young and old.…
Daily Insights
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Germany: Sick But Not Dead

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Economic Sentiment And The US Election
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today, inflation worries have eased, but…
Daily Insights
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US Consumers Are Not All The Same

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics