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The Simple Economic Identity Haunting China
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of global manufacturing climbed to 30%,…
Daily Insights
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The Definitive Guide To Contested US Elections, 2024

Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for stocks in the short run.

US Political Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
What To Watch
Daily Insights
European Consumers: Feeling Better, But Not Good
Flash estimates for European consumer confidence met expectations at -12.5 in October, rising from -12.9 in September. Despite this positive development, Euro Area sentiment remains poor. Consumer confidence remains below its long-term average and near the…
Daily Insights
UK Housing At Crosswinds
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging.  According to Rightmove, total home prices were up 0.3% in October and…
Daily Insights
Housing Is The Business Cycle… And Housing Is Weakening
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These disappointing numbers extend…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
A Turning Point For US Small Caps?
US retail sales beat expectations in September, rising 0.4% from August when growth was essentially flat. The control group also beat expectations at 0.7% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.3%. Growth was however somehow weak on an annual basis, suggesting a…
Daily Insights
Staying The Course On Our Bearish Views
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
Daily Insights
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Staying The Course

Rising stock prices and improving economic data have us re-examining our bearish thesis, but we still see deterioration in leading labor market indicators and expect it will eventually culminate in a recession. We reiterate our defensive investment recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics