Consumer
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the surprise fiscal announcement from China’s Politburo is a very different animal from previous stimulus attempts. Although the details are still vague, it adopts a much more pragmatic tone…
We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.
This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing market and to support fiscal…
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
The conventional 30-year mortgage rate eased further to 6.2% from above 7% back in the spring, spurring a 20.3% surge in refinancing activity last week. Mortgage applications rose 11.0%, marking a fifth consecutive week of increase and the Conference Board…
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in September was broad-based across…