China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained…
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of…
Consumer credit growth disappointed in June. Total credit outstanding rose by USD 8.9 billion, in June, lower than May's USD 13.9 billion, and shy of expectations of USD 10 billion. Revolving credit (which includes credit…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, the reason that the bears have been wrong for the past 18 months is that consumers have defied the expectations of most learned economists. As our colleagues posited in…
The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even…
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q2, according to the Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS). US banks reported tightening lending standards to businesses and all CRE categories. They kept…
The latest Conference Board measure of consumer confidence suggested that consumers were increasingly downbeat about current economic conditions. Notably, their fading optimism about labor market conditions drove the jobs-…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, robust iron ore imports are sending a false signal about steel demand. Instead, these supplies are being used to restock inventories. By the end of…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, there are clear signs that growth is weakening. BCA’s Global Nowcast has been slowing for three months. Behind this slowdown is the fact that the US…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.