In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester…
Canada’s fragile growth backdrop reinforces the case for more BoC easing than markets price. June retail sales rose 1.5% m/m, in line with expectations. Excluding autos, sales were stronger at 1.9%. However, the advance estimate…
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates…
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.…
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our…
We maintain our 12-month US recession probability at 60%. However, until the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are more clearly visible, we would refrain from moving to a fully defensive stance.
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.