Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disappointed in May. The manufacturing PMI contracted in May (49.5), breaking a two-month expansion streak and disappointing expectations of continued growth. Meanwhile…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump’s conviction will not be a game changer in the upcoming Presidential election. President Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges by a 12-person jury…
As in many other countries, China’s cyclical consumption growth is primarily driven by labor market conditions, income, and borrowing. BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service maintains the view that these…
In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and…
Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.
The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024.
The message from the latest Beige Book release is confirming that US demand is showing signs of slowing down. Of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 2 reported modest economic growth, 8 reported economic activity was slightly up,…
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The headline index improved to 102 from 97.5, upending expectations of a continued moderation to 96. The rebound follows 3…
Recent US housing market data has been uninspiring. The FHFA house price index decelerated in March from 1.2% m/m to 0.1% m/m, disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m, and the S&P CoreLogic 20-City index growth rate…
Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?