We feel as good about spurning the soft-landing narrative today as we did about spurning the recession narrative a year ago, but we are not giving into complacency. This week’s report looks at two key ways that we may be getting it…
US GDP growth for Q4 was revised lower from 3.3% to 3.2% annualized, driven by a downward revision to private inventory investments (now detracting 0.27 points from a previous 0.07 contribution to GDP). However, consumer spending…
The US Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence release surprised to the downside. The index decreased to 106.7 from a downwardly revised 110.9, disappointing expectations it would improve to 115.0. Consumers’…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (…
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course…
Chinese policymakers surprised on Tuesday with greater-than-anticipated easing for the troubled property market. Although the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) – the benchmark for most household and corporate loans – was…
The stronger-than-anticipated acceleration in Sweden’s headline CPI inflation is unlikely to derail the Riksbank’s plan to pivot to policy easing this year. In particular, base effects from lower energy prices a year…
Much of the focus of investors concerned about lingering price pressures has been on services prices. There is good reason for that. Even though core CPI inflation remains relatively elevated at 3.9% y/y in January, core goods…