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Special Report The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has…
Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from…
  German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday.  New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of…
  Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1…
  China’s CSI 300 equity index closed at its lowest level since early 2019 on Tuesday following news that Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s credit rating from stable to negative. The report cited the…
  The November services PMIs sent a slightly positive signal on Tuesday. The global measure ticked up from 50.4 to 50.6, pointing to a marginal pickup in the pace of expansion. Importantly, this slight improvement was broad-based…
Special Report We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The…
  The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more…
  The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has…
  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will…