Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Consumer

On The Drivers Of BTP-Bund Spread Compression
After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live & Unfiltered livestream that both…
Daily Insights
The Baltic Dry Revival
The Baltic Dry index, which measures the average price paid for the transport of dry bulk materials across more than 20 shipping lanes, has rebounded 63% this month and 130% since the middle of the year. The latest leg of the rally is not happening in…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20231127_153219.PNG
OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

The Bank Credit Analyst
F_IMAGE_20231124_150322.PNG
Global Smartphone Demand: An Anemic Recovery In 2024?

Global smartphone demand will likely find a bottom in 2024Q1 and rebound modestly between 2024Q2 and Q4. Competition in the global smartphone market will intensify. Chinese phone makers will gain market share from Apple and Samsung. Continue overweighting Taiwanese stocks, including tech, within the global equity benchmark.

China Investment Strategy
Caution: Preliminary Releases Are Subject To Revision
The US nonfarm payroll report is an important monthly data release that investors scrutinize for updates on the state of the US labor market and economy more broadly. In the current context, the updates help gauge whether the US economy is heading toward…
Daily Insights
Inventory Cycles And Markets
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory restocking worldwide will support the…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20231123_162005.PNG
The Immaculate Disinflation Of 2023, Explained

Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Repairing Eurozone Confidence
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time since April, suggesting that…
Daily Insights
On Shifting Market Narratives
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Export Orders: Signal Or Noise?
To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive signal. The pace of decline…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics