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Consumer

US SLOOS: Lending Conditions Tighten Further In Q3
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continued to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE) except government residential…
Daily Insights
US ISM: A Slowdown In Service Sector Activity
The US ISM PMI delivered a disappointing signal about service sector activity in October. The headline index fell from 53.6 to 51.8 – marking a sharp slowdown in activity and falling below expectations of a much more muted decline to 53.0. The index is now at…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing PMI Slips Deeper Into Contraction
The October update of the Global Manufacturing PMI sent a pessimistic signal about the industrial cycle. The headline index declined from 49.2 to 48.8, indicating a faster pace of deterioration. In particular, the Output, Employment, and New Export Orders…
Daily Insights
Chinese PMIs Relapse In October
Tuesday’s China PMI release delivered a negative update on economic activity in October. The NBS’ Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.2 to 49.5 while the Non-manufacturing PMI declined from 51.7 to 50.6. Both measures fell below consensus expectations, and the…
Daily Insights
New Data From The Survey Of Consumer Finances
The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution of household wealth and income. According…
Daily Insights
US Consumption Strengthens, Core PCE Inflation Accelerates In September
The US PCE report confirmed the signal from Thursday's preliminary GDP release that consumer spending was resilient in Q3.  Although personal income growth unexpectedly slowed, both nominal and real spending growth accelerated and beat expectations in…
Daily Insights
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Inflation: A Story Of Eras

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

The Bank Credit Analyst
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Inflation: A Story Of Eras

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

BCA Special Reports
US Economy Delivers Strong Growth In Q3
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption growth (from 0.8% to 4.0%) accounted…
Daily Insights
Has The ECB Reached The Pinnacle?
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the dovish side. True, the ECB…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics