There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index's 0.7% m/m decline in September sent a weaker-than-anticipated signal about the outlook for the US economy. It fell below anticipations that the pace of decline would remain…
Stronger-than-anticipated retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment in September indicate that conditions are still favorable for US consumers. Similarly, the latest reading from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model stands at 5.4…
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase…
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the…
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and…
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63.…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and…