In this report, we take stock of the Q1 2025 earnings season. Corporate commentary and forward guidance provide valuable insights into the state of the economy, tariff mitigation strategies, and consumer spending.
Five questions, five answers from the road. We unpack what Europe’s biggest investors are worried about right now, from trade‑war whiplash to bund‑versus‑Treasury positioning; and where the real opportunities still lie.
Risk assets rallied hard following the Great Geneva De-escalation, but we are not enamored of risk assets’ risk-reward profile. Forward-looking survey data remain awful on balance and we continue to recommend a defensive asset…
Deteriorating US consumer sentiment and surging inflation expectations add to growth concerns and reinforce our long-duration bond stance. The preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed expectations,…
Our EM strategists warn that China’s overinvestment problem has no quick fix, keeping deflationary pressures in place and limiting upside for Chinese equities. Excessive domestic investment, driven by aggressive credit creation, is…
April retail sales slowed, but signs of resilience in discretionary spending and labor data suggest US consumers are holding up. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% m/m, above expectations but decelerating from the upwardly revised 1.7%…
Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.
The rebound in Eurozone sentiment is encouraging but headwinds persist, justifying a defensive stance on European assets. The May ZEW expectations index jumped to 11.6 from -18.5 in the Eurozone, with Germany’s gauge also rising to…
Markets remain indifferent to soft data, but hard labor data still matters; a rise in jobless claims would offer a chance to extend duration. Survey-based indicators have collapsed, while hard data has held up, partly thanks to front…
