Consumer
The Norwegian krone’s fortunes have recently reversed. It has been the best performing G10 currency since the end of May. This comes after a period of pronounced weakness during which it was the only G10 currency to depreciate vis-à-vis the US dollar between…
As expected, the Bank of England delivered another 25 basis point rate increase at its Thursday meeting, lifting the policy rate to 5.25%. Going forward, Bailey – not unlike his counterparts at the Fed and ECB – highlighted that the MPC will be…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) reveals that US banks continue to tighten lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), residential real estate (RRE), home equity lines of credit…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing’s investment focus is shifting from traditional infrastructure to new economy infrastructure, which includes clean energy and high-tech sectors. Due to funding constraints,…
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In particular, Ireland (+3.3%) and Lithuania,…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall, real wages will rise further. If that…
The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks suggested that the expansion is still intact. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low.
US economic data released on Friday continued the string of good news about the US economy. On the inflation front, core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying price pressures – softened to 0.165% m/m in June. On an annualized basis, this…
We are now midway through the Q2 2023 earnings season: 254 of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported. It’s therefore worthwhile to stand back and observe some of the emerging trends. According to Refinitiv IBES, 78.7% of companies have reported…