Industrial metals have been rallying in recent weeks. The London Metals Exchange Metals Index (LMEX) – a weighted index that captures the price movement of primary aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, copper, and tin – has…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a sustainable recovery in Chinese property construction is unlikely. The deterioration in China’s property market indicators worsened in May. Home…
US Homebuilder confidence surprised to the upside on Monday, with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index jumping from 50 to 55 in June – beating expectations of 51. This marks the first time in 11 months that the index rises…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service Eurozone inflation likely to diminish further. First, policy is tight. The impact on leading economic variables is already visible, with M1 collapsing,…
Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator.…
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of…
China’s economic data releases for May fell below consensus estimates. The 7.2% y/y contraction in property investment in the first five months of the year was worse than the expected 6.7% decline. The deceleration in…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst…