Consumer
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
China’s economic data releases for May fell below consensus estimates. The 7.2% y/y contraction in property investment in the first five months of the year was worse than the expected 6.7% decline. The deceleration in retail sales growth from 18.4% y/y to…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The decrease was particularly…
A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…
US economic data were mixed on Thursday. On the positive side, Q1 real GDP growth was revised up to 1.3% from the preliminary estimate of 1.1%. In particular, consumption was revised higher by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% following a 1% increase in Q4…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, there are no credit obstacles preventing households from sustaining their consumption growth rate at a level that will keep the recession at bay for the rest of the year. Much has been made of…
The consumption outlook remains solid thanks to households’ sizable excess savings, incomes that will be boosted by a tight labor market and ample capacity to add debt to augment their buying power.
Consumer discretionary shares have led European markets higher this year. While long-term drivers remain positive, can the same be said for the remainder of 2023?