The kinked supply framework helps explain why US inflation rose so suddenly shortly after the pandemic began and why the economy is likely to experience a benign disinflation over the next six months.
In this report we scrutinize the state of US consumer finances, which are a key driver of the Payment Processing Industry. We expect demand for services to pull back in the early 2023 on the back of still high inflation and tighter…
Financial markets slumped with the tough talk that followed last week’s FOMC meeting, but investors should recognize that the tone of the Fed’s communications is conditioned upon the inflation backdrop. Once it improves, Chair Powell…
As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global equities over a 12-month horizon.
Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
The September CPI report was disappointing, but we still see several signs pointing to a rapid decline in inflation. Our constructive near-term view on stocks and the economy remains intact.
Long-after-the-fact revisions to reported income, spending and savings data do not alter our assessment that a flush consumer will continue to support the US economy and allow S&P 500 earnings to surprise the bearish investor…
We share our thoughts about some of the less-discussed topics that came up across three weeks of face-to-face discussions with investors. We retain our conviction that the American consumer’s demise has been greatly exaggerated, and…
This week’s Global Investment Strategy report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.