Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers  Three mega moats will protect the US economy over the next 12 months: 1) A high number of job…

S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart 2Profitability  Chart 3Valuations And Technicals  Chart 4Uses Of Cash  Cyclicals Vs Defensives Chart 5Macroeconomic Backdrop  Chart…

Executive Summary The constructive economic view that has us at odds with the consensus rests on three premises: excess pandemic savings will allow consumption to grow at trend, despite inflation; inflation will soon peak, moving to…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year  Following last week’s sharp post-FOMC rally…

Executive Summary Reporters at last week’s post-FOMC press conference were consumed by the prospect of a recession. Their questions about the economy echoed the analysts’ on bank earnings calls and Chair Powell’s…

Special Report

US services spending collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and remains significantly below the level that would have prevailed had the pandemic not occurred. This raises the question of whether services consumption will ever return to…

Special Report

Executive Summary Compared to output, income and net worth, aggregate consumer indebtedness is at the low end of its twenty-first century range. Modest indebtedness and low interest rates have made it easy for households to service…

Executive Summary Financial markets have buckled under the weight of 40-year highs in inflation that have forced the Fed and other major central banks to promise no quarter in their fight against inflation, spooking investors with…

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.