UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank…
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession…
A sharp drop in consumer confidence adds to signs that a consumption slowdown is coming, threatening both US and global growth. Yet rising short-term inflation expectations will keep central banks cautious, weighing on long-term…
The US economy faces a new investment regime characterized by tighter fiscal and easier monetary policies. The market corrected fast, and a short-lived equity rebound is likely. However, over the long term, US equities face economic…
Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit…
European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?
The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment…
The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.
The March ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 51.6 from 26.0 in February. The current situation assessment only marginally improved yet remains deeply negative at -87.6.…
February Canadian headline inflation was stronger than expected, rising to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were also slightly hotter than expected, both rising to 2.9% from 2.7% a month prior, near…