Underweight When we downgraded the S&P hotels, resorts and cruise lines index to underweight last year, it was because the index's outperformance to that date had been due to the cruise line component companies (second panel)…
Highlights Key Portfolio Highlights Our portfolio positioning remains firmly behind cyclicals over defensives, driven principally by our key 2018 investment themes: synchronized global capex growth (Chart 1A) and higher interest…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The reward/risk profile of air freight & logistics is extremely attractive. Synchronized global growth, the capex upcycle, a falling dollar and secular advance in e-commerce compel us to add this…
Underweight Last week we downgraded the S&P consumer discretionary index to a below benchmark allocation on the back of three key factors: a rising fed funds rate, quantitative tightening and higher prices at the pump. One of the…
Underweight Declining share of the consumer's wallet has been the narrative for media stocks for several years (top panel). Millennials, currently the largest U.S. age cohort, have been "cord cutting" and preferring…
Underweight In mid-January we put the S&P consumer discretionary sector on downgrade alert as our EPS model had rolled over. Combined with BCA's high interest rate theme for 2018, it is time to execute the alert and cut the S…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Quantitative tightening, a rising fed funds rate and higher prices at the pump are all bearish consumer discretionary stocks. Downgrade exposure to underweight. We are executing this interest rate-…
Underweight As with other metals-consuming industries, stocks in both the S&P auto components and S&P autos indexes have traded sharply lower following the announcement of the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs (top panel).…
Neutral (Downgrade Alert) Comcast shareholders were surprised earlier this week with the announcement that they were making an offer to purchase British satellite broadcaster Sky, besting an offer from 21st Century Fox for the 61% it…
Neutral While internet retail moved to the mainstream more than a decade ago, it continues to capture the lion's share of retail growth and investors' imaginations along with it. Further, the philosophy of "profits don…