Consumer Discretionary

Mixed data on housing turnover and new home prices have created some uncertainty surrounding the S&P homebuilders index over the past year, but we continue to see robust upside potential. Home prices are recovering after experiencing volatility in recent quarters, but not to the extent that affordability has been compromised. In fact, the Fed's dovish shift has helped push down long-term Treasury yields, further depressing mortgage rates and supporting housing affordability. The recent surge in lumber prices suggests that underlying construction activity is solid. Importantly, housing starts and real house prices remain well below prior cyclical peaks, underscoring that homebuilding companies should enjoy a prolonged period of decent growth. Moreover, the homeownership ratio has troughed, removing a major drag on the housing market. Any recovery in this ratio could turbo-charge housing demand. The implication is that homebuilders remain a core portfolio overweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: DHI, LEN, PHM. bca.uses_in_2016_03_31_002_c1 bca.uses_in_2016_03_31_002_c1

The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.

The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.

Similar to the euro area, Japanese consumer discretionary stocks have a long runway ahead. Japan is the latest country to join the NIRP club following the late-January BOJ surprise move to charge deposit-taking institutions a negative deposit rate. While interest rate suppression has negative connotations for Japanese banks, it should spur demand for discretionary consumer outlays if it breaks the deflationary consumer mindset. The top panel of the chart shows that relative share prices are inversely correlated with interest rates and the current message is to expect a rebound in Japanese consumer discretionary relative performance. Japan's NIRP should also lure banks to focus on loan volumes. Loosening bank credit standards typically boost discretionary spending. Importantly, a wide gap has opened between loan growth and relative share prices, which will likely narrow via a catch up phase in the latter. Meanwhile the Japanese labor market is tight, but this is neither reflected in relative consumer discretionary share prices, nor in relative valuations (third & fourth panels). Bottom Line: Overweight Japanese consumer discretionary stocks. For additional information on global consumer discretionary stocks please read the Global Alpha Sector Strategy report titled "In the Eye Of The Hurricane" at gss.bcaresearch.com. (Part III) The Global Consumer Discretionary Juggernaut Is Over (Part III) The Global Consumer Discretionary Juggernaut Is Over

Unlike in the U.S., current opportunities in consumer discretionary stocks lie in Europe and Japan. NIRP in the euro area will likely prove a powerful tonic for local consumers, and discretionary spending (top panel). The ECB is aggressively easing monetary conditions and is injecting unprecedented liquidity into the banking sector which should entice bankers to extend credit instead of hoard cash, on the margin. In fact, the ECB is squarely targeting banks to grow their lending books and provide breathing room to the economy, especially in the credit-starved periphery. Following the double-dip recession, euro area credit growth is slated to reaccelerate, as the ECB's fresh TLTROs and QE should open the lending spigots (second panel). On the labor front, while euro area unemployment is still running at double digit rates, excess slack is diminishing. The implication is that pent up consumer demand is only now being unleashed in the euro area, which should boost relative share prices (third panel). None of this encouraging consumer discretionary demand backdrop is reflected in ultra-cheap valuations, given that euro area consumer discretionary stocks are trading at a 25% EV/EBITDA discount to the global consumer discretionary index. Bottom line: Overweight euro area consumer discretionary stocks in a global portfolio (see the next Insight). (Part II) The Global Consumer Discretionary Juggernaut Is Over (Part II) The Global Consumer Discretionary Juggernaut Is Over

The outlook for the S&P consumer discretionary sector is bearish. The time to buy this early cyclical sector is when the Fed is embarking on an easing cycle, in a bid to improve the labor market conditions and restart the credit cycle. The opposite is now true, full employment has already been reached, and the Fed is poised to continue lifting interest rates this year. Historically, interest rates have been inversely correlated with relative performance and the current message is to avoid the U.S. consumer discretionary sector (top panel). Credit is a powerful fuel for consumer discretionary stocks. On this front, the recent continued tightening in U.S. lending standards is worrisome, especially given waning loan demand, according to the latest Fed's senior loan officer survey. The broad-based deterioration implies that tighter credit will persist, to the detriment of loan growth (second panel). Finally, relative consumer discretionary valuations in the U.S. are expensive. The bottom panel of the chart shows that the U.S. is trading at a 6% EV/EBTIDA premium to the global consumer discretionary sector. Bottom Line: A below benchmark allocation is warranted for the U.S. consumer discretionary sector, but opportunities exist outside the U.S., please see the next Insight. bca.uses_in_2016_03_17_001_c1 bca.uses_in_2016_03_17_001_c1

If the EM rally is sustained, the Fed will once again become resolute in its commitment to hiking interest rates. This in turn will spur another relapse in EM risk assets. Chinese policymakers are attempting to juggle contradictory objectives without a clear and realistic plan of action to resolve existing problems.

The recent rebound is not a harbinger of a prolonged recovery in risk assets. The many potential negatives will keep volatility high and trigger further occasional selloffs.

The previous Insight outlined the case for good building supply store sales growth, but an aggressive rise in wage inflation and intensifying deflation pressures may provide a negative offset. Meanwhile, the gap between house price inflation and mortgage rates has slipped below zero (second panel), suggesting that the financial incentive to buy and renovate a home has eased, on the margin. It is notable the retailing CEO confidence has taken a sharp turn for the worse in recent months, as this series often provides a good lead on industry sales trends. Souring confidence may reflect deflationary pressures. Importantly, our Home Improvement Retail model, which incorporates leading top and bottom line indicators, has not confirmed the advance in relative share performance into overvalued territory. Against this backdrop, we recommend only a market neutral weight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: HD, LOW. (Part II) Can Home Improvement Retail Sustain Its Momentum? (Part II) Can Home Improvement Retail Sustain Its Momentum?

Both Home Depot and Lowe's produced strong profit results in the most recent quarter, aided by a warm winter weather, which pulled forward sales of many products. The odds of the industry maintaining decent sales momentum are good, given that ultra-low mortgage rates should sustain housing turnover (second panel). Banks are still willing to extend mortgage credit, as rising house prices provide confidence in underlying asset values. Nevertheless, extrapolating future store traffic growth straight down to the bottom line risks being too optimistic. The industry has hired aggressively to meet rising demand, and deflation still plagues the industry (bottom panel). Deflation amidst good store traffic also suggests that a serious market share battle is raging, which means meeting this year's aggressive industry earnings growth estimates is not guaranteed, please see the next Insight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: HD, LOW. bca.uses_in_2016_02_25_001_c1 bca.uses_in_2016_02_25_001_c1