Mixed data on housing turnover and new home prices have created some uncertainty surrounding the S&P homebuilders index over the past year, but we continue to see robust upside potential. Home prices are recovering after…
The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.
The Fed's recent dovishness represents an acknowledgement of the feedback loop between Fed policy and financial conditions. Expect Fed hawkishness to ramp back up prior to the next rate hike, likely in June.
Similar to the euro area, Japanese consumer discretionary stocks have a long runway ahead. Japan is the latest country to join the NIRP club following the late-January BOJ surprise move to charge deposit-taking institutions a negative…
Unlike in the U.S., current opportunities in consumer discretionary stocks lie in Europe and Japan. NIRP in the euro area will likely prove a powerful tonic for local consumers, and discretionary spending (top panel). The ECB is…
The outlook for the S&P consumer discretionary sector is bearish. The time to buy this early cyclical sector is when the Fed is embarking on an easing cycle, in a bid to improve the labor market conditions and restart the credit…
If the EM rally is sustained, the Fed will once again become resolute in its commitment to hiking interest rates. This in turn will spur another relapse in EM risk assets. Chinese policymakers are attempting to juggle contradictory…
The recent rebound is not a harbinger of a prolonged recovery in risk assets. The many potential negatives will keep volatility high and trigger further occasional selloffs.
The previous Insight outlined the case for good building supply store sales growth, but an aggressive rise in wage inflation and intensifying deflation pressures may provide a negative offset. Meanwhile, the gap between house price…
Both Home Depot and Lowe's produced strong profit results in the most recent quarter, aided by a warm winter weather, which pulled forward sales of many products. The odds of the industry maintaining decent sales momentum are good,…