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Consumer Staples

Beige Book Shows Signs Of Slower Employment
The Fed’s Beige Book compiles qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its 12 Districts. It precedes FOMC meetings by a couple of weeks and is meant to help participants trace the evolution of economic conditions. …
Daily Insights
Already Optimistic Earnings Expectations Continue To Improve
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset. Excluding Materials and Real…
Daily Insights
Equities And Elections
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to uncertainty. Once the election results are…
Daily Insights
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US Equities: What To Select For The President Elect

Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Pratik Bhanuse, Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
No Near-Term Fiscal Response In Sight Despite Chinese Malaise
China’s economic malaise extended through the month of July. The contraction in property investment worsened (-10.2% YTD y/y) and disappointed expectations of a slower pace of decline. Residential property sales remained dismal (-25.9% YTD y/y). Industrial…
Daily Insights
US Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside In July
Preliminary estimates suggest that US retail sales surprised to the upside in July. They grew by 1.0% m/m from a 0.2% monthly contraction in June, exceeding expectations of a slower 0.4% pace of growth. Sales of vehicles and parts (+3.6% m/m) were the main…
Daily Insights
Banks Tightened Credit Card Lending Standards In Q2
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q2, according to the Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS). US banks reported tightening lending standards to businesses and all CRE categories. They kept standards mostly unchanged compared…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Recession Signs Increase

Concerns about the global economy have shifted from sticky inflation to faltering growth. Tight monetary policy is finally starting to bite. We suggest increasing portfolio defensiveness.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Making Money In The Late Phases Of An Economic Expansion
We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a hedge for the second half of 2024,…
Daily Insights
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Style Chart Pack: Excess Liquidity Is Driving Markets Higher

Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant markets. The Fed is unlikely to step in to prevent the bubble as it is currently more worried about the near-term downside for growth than financial stability.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell

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