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Corporate

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.

The January Conference Board Consumer Confidence index missed estimates, decreasing to 104.1 from an upwardly-revised 109.5 in December. The decrease was driven by both the present situation and expectations subcomponents. The labor differential, the…
News of a cheaper Chinese-developed AI model sent a tremor through markets, with a selloff in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and leading tech names associated with AI. The narrative on Monday was that the eye-watering sums spent on AI capex by mega-cap tech…
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

Banks have had an amazing run, and while such strong performance is unlikely to repeat, there is still oomph left in the trade thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment, stronger demand for loans, a steeper yield curve, and a strong pipeline of capital market activity. Key risks are further tightening of monetary policy and an increase in bad loans. We reiterate our overweight on Capital Markets, Diversified Banks, and Regional Banks. 

The January Philly Fed Manufacturing index blew past estimates, soaring to 44.3 vs. a revised 10.9 points contraction in December. Most subcomponents rose for both the current and expected categories. Measures of prices paid and received also ticked…
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
The December US Producer Price Index came in cooler than expected, increasing 0.2% m/m, a deceleration from 0.4% in November. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat after increasing 0.2% a month prior.  Inflation is a lagging variable, as…