Corporate
The US Consumer Discretionary sector has been one of the top winners since the equity rally broadened two months ago. Its 13% gain since the end of May outpaces the S&P 500’s rally by 3.8 percentage points This outperformance comes despite last week’s…
Equity investors resoundingly approved of the large-cap banks’ second-quarter earnings reports: in the seven sessions since C, JPM and WFC kicked off 2Q23 earnings on July 14th, the S&P 500 Banks Index rose 6.3% to the S&P 500’s 1%, with all but two…
BCA Research’s Private Market & Alternatives service sees challenges ahead for Global Buyout across geographies as valuations need further resetting. Buyout valuations globally are stretched relative to historic standards. For Large Buyouts, Purchasing…
US speculative-grade corporate bond (junk) spreads rose significantly last year in response to a sharp increase in US interest rates and widespread concerns about a US recession. Junk spreads have since come in from their mid-2022 peak, and now trade below…
The Q2-2023 earnings season will kick off this Friday. The following are the investors’ “Cliff notes” to this earnings season. Market Expectations Earnings growth: According to Refinitiv IBES, earnings will contract by 6.4% y/y. If that is an actual…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, although the recovery in overall Chinese industrial profits will be subdued, there will be a silver lining among China’s consumer goods producers, autos and utilities. Corporate earnings in…
The recovery of China’s industrial profits is set to disappoint in 2H 2023. Corporate profits are more sensitive to changes in prices than volumes. Given producers’ selling prices will keep deflating through 2023, industrial profits will only stabilize at a very depressed level even with a mild improvement in volume. A disappointing recovery in industrial profits entails more downward risks for A-share prices in absolute terms. Chinese 10-year bond yields are set to drop to a record low.
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator continues to warn about the economic outlook. The month-on-month rate of change and the six-month rate of change showed the index declining at a faster pace. Weaker consumer expectations for business…
Recent economic data reveal that Canadian household conditions remain resilient. Retail sales surprised to the upside in April. The 1.1% m/m increase follows two consecutive monthly declines and beat expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise. Similarly, the Bank of…
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…