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Corporate

As we’ve highlighted in recent Insights, the S&P 500’s year-to-date rally has been concentrated among a few mega cap stocks. In particular, companies that benefit from the AI craze have driven the gains. This dynamic is also reflected in the sector…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
US economic data were mixed on Thursday. On the positive side, Q1 real GDP growth was revised up to 1.3% from the preliminary estimate of 1.1%. In particular, consumption was revised higher by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% following a 1% increase in Q4…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, there are no credit obstacles preventing households from sustaining their consumption growth rate at a level that will keep the recession at bay for the rest of the year. Much has been made of…

Financial commentators, politicians and policymakers have increasingly been blaming stubbornly high inflation on companies pursuing aggressive pricing strategies to boost earnings and margins. In this Special Report, we investigate the concept of “greedflation” – companies persistently raising prices faster than costs are increasing to pad profit margins - and see if the associated conclusions about corporate pricing power and inflation are borne out by the data in the US, euro area and UK.

For long-term investors, high-yield bonds are an attractive asset class. They behave like low-volatility equities: In the US, they have a 70-80% correlation with equities, but with a beta of only around one-third. The Sharpe ratio of US high-yield bonds over…

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is very weak. What are the ramifications of all of these for Chinese economic growth and financial markets?

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

Is there a lot of cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed? Would the US recession not be bearish for the US dollar and help EM like it did in the early 2000s? Why can the US investment playbook of the past 15-25 years not be used in this cycle?