Corporate Bonds

Europe’s weak patch is not about the ECB’s policy tightening, at least not yet. 2024 is another story, and the ECB’s policy will prompt a Eurozone’s recession around the summer.

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.

We present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2023.

Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven investment with carry.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Top-down measures of nonfinancial corporate sector balance sheet health have been flattered in recent quarters by inaccurate data on interest expense. After correcting for the inaccurate data, we see that our best measures of corporate balance sheet health show a persistent steady deterioration.

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.