Corporate Bonds

This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.

A June rate hike is a real possibility, but the Fed still needs evidence that growth is rebounding toward 2% in order to follow through. Whether the next rate hike occurs in June or later this year, a persistent hawkish shift from the Fed will send Treasury yields higher during the next few months.

There is a considerable dichotomy between the EM equity universe and EM corporate credit markets. EM credit markets remain mispriced. EM currencies are at risk of renewed depreciation. This will push sovereign and corporate spreads, as well as high-yielding domestic bond yields, higher. Continue underweighting Indonesian stocks, sovereign credit and domestic bonds within their respective benchmarks.

Within an overweight allocation to Euro Area corporates versus U.S. corporates, favor single-B rated Euro Area High-Yield and Euro Area Investment Grade sectors that offer higher duration-adjusted spreads.

The U.S. dollar has fallen to almost 5% below its 2016 peak. In this <i>Special Report</i> we explore the impact of a weaker dollar on key U.S. fixed income markets.

To cheaply hedge against a "Leave" vote, go long U.K. inflation protection, reduce exposure to U.K. corporate debt, and position for a steepening of the Gilt curve.

We continue to view the rally in equities and high-yield corporate bonds since February as a high-risk affair.

Financial conditions will continue to ease during the next few months, and the Fed will use its June statement to prepare the markets for a rate hike in September.

Absolute valuations on Euro Area corporates are not cheap, but there are relative value opportunities to take advantage of the ECB becoming a major buyer of corporates. Favor Euro Area High-Yield over Euro Area Investment Grade, and favor Euro Area corporates over U.S. corporates.

The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China developments that could derail the current EM rally. A new trade: go long the KOSPI / short EM overall equity index.