Falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. As such, we recommend that investors shift their duration stance from underweight to neutral over a 12 month-and-longer horizon…
Executive Summary Assessing the future scenarios discounted in asset prices is always a challenge, but investors need a consensus baseline so they can formulate their own investment strategy decisions. The conversations we had at BCA…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
Executive Summary An Optimal Control Policy We could see some modest near-term downside in Treasury yields as inflation rolls over during the next few months, but we caution against turning overly bullish on bonds even if…
Executive Summary The recent pullback was all about a multiples contraction while strong earnings growth helped absorb the blow. With the multiple contraction phase complete, the S&P 500 performance is now all about earnings.…
Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
Highlights Fed: The Fed is embroiled in a debate about whether to move more quickly toward rate hikes. Our expectation is that the Fed will remain relatively dovish unless 5-year/5-year forward inflation expectations show signs of…
Highlights In this report, we take a close look at corporate margins by analyzing their key drivers: The general level of economic activity, trends in labor costs and productivity, borrowing costs, tax rates, depreciation charges, the…