Highlights Portfolio Strategy Gold bullion is on the move again, and falling real yields, a soft economic backdrop, a depreciating US dollar and resurgent geopolitical uncertainty, all argue for reintroducing a modest portfolio hedge…
Highlights The consensus view seems to be that equities have to cool off in 2020, even if the danger has passed: Recession fears have dissipated as the yield curve has returned to its normal upward-sloping orientation and US-China…
An analysis on Ukraine is available below. Highlights A number of liquidity and technical reasons have led us to give benefit of the doubt to the bullish market action and chase this EM rally. We still doubt that the US-China…
Highlights An analysis on Thailand is available below. In all scenarios of global market performance, EM will underperform DM in the first half of 2020. Absolute return investors should be mindful of downside risks in EM financial…
An analysis on Brazil is available below. Feature Chart I-1Poor Performance By EM Stocks, Currencies And Commodities I had the pleasure of meeting again with a long-term BCA client Ms. Mea last week during my trip to Europe…
Highlights Stock markets are set to produce low single digit returns in 2020. Favour stocks over bonds and cash, especially where bond yields are zero or negative – specifically, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden. Underweight…
Highlights All the steps in the earnings dance are well known: Company management teams guide Wall Street analysts to lower their expectations in the weeks leading up to the beginning of earnings season, and their companies’…
Highlights The banks got the current earnings season off to a good start, … : Lending growth may be running in place, and net interest margins are under pressure, but positive operating leverage helped the banks beat…
Highlights The interim “phase 1” trade agreement reached last week represents a significant step forward towards reaching a détente in the China-U.S. trade war. Regardless of what happens next in the Brexit…