Highlights The first quarter is in the books, … : Risk may have been out in the fourth quarter, but it is squarely back in fashion so far this year, with equities and high yield posting gaudy first-quarter returns. … and…
Two weeks ago, we highlighted that S&P 500 profit margins have likely peaked for the cycle and that our margin proxy, weighed down by mounting concerns over wage growth and nil pricing power, was pointing to a further decline (top…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Corporate sector selling price inflation is nil while leading wage inflation indicators signal additional labor cost increases in the coming months. The risk is that profit margins have already peaked for…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy As growth becomes scarce, investors flock to sectors that are slated to outgrow the broad market and shy away from the ones that are forecast to trail the SPX’s growth rate. This week we rank…
Highlights Trade talks have been the primary driver of the rally in Chinese stocks and China-related assets over the past five months. While trade is important to China’s economy, Chinese domestic demand is the primary driver of…
Highlights Please note that analysis on India is published below. Even if the recent upturn in the Chinese credit impulse is sustained, there will likely still be a six- to nine-month lag between the impulse’s trough and the…
Highlights Spread Product Valuation: Corporate bond spreads don’t look especially cheap relative to average historical levels. But they are far too elevated for the current phase of the economic cycle. Valuations in other spread…
Highlights The current trajectory in global share prices resembles what took place in 2000 and early 2001. The early 2001 rebound in global and EM stocks lasted several weeks only, despite ongoing easing by the Federal Reserve.…