Highlights Our indicators suggest that investors should be especially cautious in the next month or two. April's Beige Book supports our view that higher inflation will lead to at least three more Fed rate hikes this year. However…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Expensive valuations leave no room to maneuver in the S&P real estate index that has to contend with a higher interest rate backdrop and deteriorating cash flow growth fundamentals. Trim to…

Highlights Q1 earnings season looks robust, but trade policy is an uncertainty. Sizeable shifts in equity technicals and sentiment since the start of the year; valuation still stretched. Global growth may have peaked but fiscal,…

Highlights BCA expects consumer spending to remain supportive of above-trend economic growth in the U.S. in the next few quarters. Our view is that the 2018 outlook for both the U.S. economy and corporate profits remains constructive…

Highlights The 2018 outlook for both economic growth and corporate profits remains constructive for risk assets, although evidence is gathering that global growth is peaking. Some measures of global activity related to capital…

Highlights Several economic and financial market indicators point to a budding downtrend in Chinese capital spending and its industrial sector. The recent underperformance of global mining, chemicals and machinery/industrials…

Highlights Duration: Fed Governor Lael Brainard stated last week that many of the headwinds that held back growth between 2014 and 2016 have faded. This acknowledgement from the most dovish Fed Governor opens the door for a more…

Special Report

We estimate the corporate sector's vulnerability to rising interest rates and a weaker economic environment, highlighting the industries that will be hit the hardest. Both our top-down and bottom-up Corporate Health Monitors show…

Highlights Managements continue to guide higher for 2018 as the Q4 earnings season draws to a close. It is too soon for investors to be concerned about higher inflation. Investors are still uneasy that either the age of the current…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recovering energy related capex and upbeat oil prices are a powerful tonic for the S&P integrated oil & gas index. Augment positions to overweight. A diverging crude/refined product inventory…