Highlights Financial markets have slipped into a 'risk off' phase. The upbeat second quarter earnings season in the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone was overwhelmed by a number of negative events. Equity bear markets are usually…
Highlights The strong labor market may be holding down wage inflation. The strength in sales and EPS is broad-based and sustainable. July FOMC minutes highlight internal debate at the Fed over inflation. Financial stability is the…
Highlights A number forward-looking indicators for EM corporate profits point to a major deceleration in the next several months, and potentially a contraction early next year. The most reliable forward-looking indicators for EM EPS…
Highlights Strong corporate earnings growth will drown out worries about North Korea. Stay cyclically overweight global equities. Underlying wage growth in the U.S. is stronger than the official data suggest. Surveys point to a…
Highlights July jobs report friendly for risk assets. Q2 earnings and July ISM confirm bullish profit environment. The Fed acknowledges softer inflation, but remains determined to tighten policy. 1H economic growth is just enough…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The chemicals bear market is over. Synchronized global growth, receding global capacity and improving domestic operating conditions compel us to lift exposure to neutral. As a result, our materials sector…
Highlights The GOP's failure to repeal Obamacare could rev up the Republicans' motivation to move forward on tax cuts. Fed policymakers are taking financial stability seriously. Constructive conditions for consumer spending…
Highlights The strong tailwinds behind China's recovery since early 2016 are likely to wane in the coming months. Diminishing reflationary forces will not immediately lead to a growth relapse, as the domestic economy has developed…