An adverse shock is not a recession prerequisite. The empirical record shows that the US economy regularly evolves its way into a contraction with little fanfare. If current cooling trends continue, we project a recession will…

  Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However,…

  Chinese investable stocks have rallied on a combination of investors’ hopes for stimulus, revival in the global manufacturing cycle and cheap valuations. The MSCI China index and the Hang Seng have both gained close to 15%…

  After underperforming in 2022, I.T., Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services – the three sectors encompassing America’s largest tech companies – have rallied by 61.3%, 41.4% and 73.7%, respectively,…

  EUR/USD has fallen by almost 5% since July last year. There are fundamental reasons why this move has taken place. The US economy has shown significant more resilience than the European one. Consumption continues to be strong,…

  According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, Q1 earnings results signaled that net interest income (NII) growth is set to decline in US banks. For nearly two years, America’s largest banks enjoyed a…

  Over the last weeks, US semiconductor stocks have plunged by over 17%. In a way, this correction should be expected. Semiconductor stocks had skyrocketed this year. Even after the recent pullback, semi stocks…

  According to BCA Research's European Investment Strategy service, European profit margins have downside because they are both elevated and procyclical. European net margins stand at 7.7% above their long-term average…

  Nvidia has amassed staggering sales from AI. Last year its data center revenues exploded, going from just over $4 billion in 2023 Q1, to over $18 billion in 2023 Q4. That said, its competitors have not done as well. In the…