Highlights In the short term, the US stock market price will track the 30-year T-bond price, with every 10 bps move in the yield moving the stock market and bond price by 2.5 percent. We think that the bond market will not allow the…
Will dollar strength experienced in the back half of 2021 continue in 2022? The macroeconomic backdrop suggests otherwise. The dollar is typically a counter-cyclical currency which tends to outperform during risk-off periods. We…
After hitting an all-time high of $68,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin has suffered a 40 percent drawdown. Where is it heading from here? BCA Research strategists are divided about the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies. Our…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service argues that a small allocation to Ether is the most attractive way to profit from the growth of digital collectibles. Digital art is here to stay and is likely to become…
Dear client, In lieu of our weekly bulletin next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Friday, January 28 at 11:00 am EST, to discuss recent dollar trends. I hope you all tune in. Kind regards, Chester Ntonifor Highlights While not…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…
Highlights On US inflation and the Fed: If the Fed adheres to its mandate, it has no choice but to hike rates until core inflation drops toward 2% (from its current level above 4%). Yet, share prices will sell off before inflation…
The South African rand depreciated 15% versus the greenback between June and November 2021. However, this trend has reversed in recent weeks and it is now up 3% since then. The ZAR’s latest move coincides with measures to…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, equity portfolio flows have been more important in financing the US trade deficit, than Treasury purchases, since 2020. A reversal in these flows will undermine…
Highlights The most important question is whether the Fed will hike interest rates by more than what is currently discounted in markets, or less. More hikes will trigger a set of cascading reactions. US bond yields will initially jump…