BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service is cautiously long AUD at 70 cents. COVID-19 continues to ravage Australia, prompting the government to adopt measures such as threatening to deport superstar athletes who…
Highlights In this week’s report we update our Chart Pack, updating familiar charts that underscore our strategic themes and cyclical/tactical views. Social unrest in Kazakhstan points to two of our strategic themes: great power…
Highlights US economic data remains robust, but economic surprises are rolling over relative to other G10 countries. Meanwhile, the Fed is turning a tad more hawkish, which is positive for the greenback in the short term but could hurt…
Highlights For the time being, US core inflation will not drop anywhere close to the Fed’s target range. The Fed will continue tightening until something breaks. US bond yields and the US dollar are heading higher. The S&…
Highlights Demand in the major economies remains well below its pre-pandemic trend. Meaning that relative to potential output, demand is lukewarm, at best. Inflation is hot, not because of strong overall demand, but because of the…
Highlights The bull run in Vietnamese stocks is due for a pause as the weakness in overall EM markets spreads to this bourse. Household consumption will stay constrained as new COVID-19 cases remain high and fiscal and monetary…
We have entered a new phase of the cycle, with central banks in most developed markets turning more hawkish (the Bank of England surprisingly hiking in December, and the Fed signaling three rate hikes for 2022). How much does…
Dear Client, Thank you for your continued readership and support this year. This is the last European Investment Strategy report for 2021. In this piece, we review ten charts covering important aspects of the European economy and…
Dear client, This is our final report for this year. Clients who missed our FX key views report last week can access the link here. We thank you for your continued readership, and wish you happy and healthy holidays. Kind regards…
Highlights Our three strategic themes over the long run: (1) great power rivalry (2) hypo-globalization (3) populism and nationalism. The implications are inflationary over the long run. Nations that gear up for potential conflict and…